Close to buying an election - the value of a vote?

The campaign spending results are in for the New Jersey Gubernatorial race. The numbers show the value of a vote. If a candidate is unpopular enough even spending gobs of money is not enough to buy an election – but it is pretty close. New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine lost his re-election bid by about 4% of the vote.

Here is how much the three major candidates spent in the race, and the amount of money they spent per vote they received:

Governor Jon Corzine $27,000,000 - $25.60/vote

Governor-elect Chris Christie $11,400,000 - $9.88/vote

Independent Chris Daggett $1,600,000 - $11.70/vote

Governor Corzine’s big spending brought him close to winning re-election but even spending more money than his competitors combine did not give him the win. Does these stats show a need for campaign finance reform, or does it just show Corzine was as incompetent running an elections as voters believed he was in running the state?

On a side note, the Associate Press is reporting that Governor Corzine spent $131,000,000 of his own money running for office since 2000. Governor Corzine has run for Governor twice, and U.S. Senate once.

SOURCE:

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/35180/gubernatorial-campaign-spending-down-30

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9218487

2009 indy candidate for Governor calls for investigation…

The New Jersey Star-Ledger is reporting former independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett wants state to investigate robocalls that he says “severely damaged” his candidacy.

Matt Friedman wriets on PolitickerNJ.com the question comes from, “The call, in which a woman’s voice attacks Republican Chris Christie for being ‘wrong where it matters most,’ urges listeners to ‘remember Chris Daggett's words: It's never wrong to vote for the right person.’”

The Democratic State Committee’s admitted that it paid for the robocalls. The Daggett camp is saying the call violated state law "to support or defeat a candidate for Governor or in aid of the candidacy of a candidate for Governor in the general election."

We’ll see what happens. We’re not sure how Daggett will fair in this battle. Possibly his most effective focus could be changing election law that puts Democrat and Republican candidates on the top of each ballot and buries third party candidates in a random order at the bottom of the ballot – he’s already sued over this one with the Libertarian candidate for New Jersey Governor.

SOURCE:

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/35005/daggett-wants-robocall-investigated

Daggett falls victim to Corzine fear…

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett may have fallen victim to Corzine fear. With 99% of the votes counted Chris Daggett came in third place with 5.7% of the vote.

That 5.7% of the vote was about five to ten percent lower than recent polls showed. The Thirds has to believe most of those five to ten percent of people that left the Daggett went to Republican challenger, and now Governor-elect Chris Christie.

We believe this shift had to do that people wanted Governor Jon Corzine out of office even more than seeing their man in the office. Governor Corzine’s final election numbers were about two-percent higher than poll averages, but Governor-elect Christie’s final tally was about seven-percent higher than poll averages. That was the number of people that bolted from Daggett.

If Governor-elect Chris Christie wanted to make a real splash in New Jersey politics he should offer Chris Daggett a spot in his cabinet. Daggett could head-up Department of Environmental Protection again. You could also make arguments for Daggett to lead the Civil Service Commission, Department of Treasury, Department of the Treasury, New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission, Office of Economic Growth, Department of State, and Department of the Public Advocate. With his Governmental management background you could even argue Daggett could run the Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness.

Results with 99% reporting:

Chris Christie (Republican) 49.0%

Jon Corzine (Democrat) 44.4%

Chris Daggett (Independent for NJ) 5.7%

Kenneth R. Kaplan (Libertarian Party) 0.2%

Gary T. Steele (Leadership, Independence, Vision) 0.1%

Jason Cullen (People Not Politics) 0.1%

David R. Meiswinkle (Middle Class Empowerment) 0.1%

Kostas Petris (For The People) 0.1%

Gregory Pason (Socialist Party USA) 0.1%

Gary Stein (Various titles) 0.1%

Joshua Leinsdorf (Fair Election Party) 0.0%

Alvin Lindsay, Jr. (Lindsay for Governor) 0.0%

SOURCE:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/new-jersey.html

Chuck Todd: Being independent is a positive for “many voters”

Today NBC’s Chuck Todd wrote a “briefing-column” on the major elections today. A key point in his column is that being an independent or Third Party candidate is a major plus to many voters.

He wrote, “We know that not being associated with either political party is a net plus with many voters — from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's expected victory, to Chris Daggett's influence in New Jersey, to Doug Hoffman's rise in New York's 23rd Congressional District.”

In a section titled “The angry independent” Todd wrote, “Candidates who stand up to the establishment and find a reform message will benefit, no matter their party label.”

SOURCE:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33591486/ns/politics-more_politics/

After saying no, New Jersey Democrats fess-up to robo-call…

After saying no, New Jersey Democrats fess-up to robo-call. Matt Friedman writes on PolitickerNJ.com, “The Democratic State Committee now admits paying for a robocall to Somerset County voters that slams Republican Chris Christie and promotes independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett. A Democratic spokeswoman says the party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, was not aware of the robocalls when he denied that the state committee had anything to do with them yesterday afternoon.”

There has been some accusations over the campaign that Chris Daggett is some kind of Manchurian-Independent to suck votes away from Republican challenger Chris Christie planned by incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.

Daggett has continually denied the claims and in fact polls show Daggett is sucking away more support from Governor Corzine than the Republican challenger Christie. Daggett was quoted saying he had no part in the robo-calls, “Voters hate robocalls. This is just another instance of the dishonest ways Democrats and Republicans use to win campaigns and to fool voters.”

There is also a pro-Governor Corzie robocall from President Obama that may ring some phones in New Jersey.

SOURCE:

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34725/democrats-admit-paying-pro-daggett-call-obama-records-robocall-corzine

Reading Polls: Daggett will finish in double digits…

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett will finish in double digits on election night after looking at key polls on Pollster.com. Looking at the polls that ended on November 1st we see a few trends.

In all polls, except for one, Chris Daggett was getting double-digit support. The poll that shows Daggett only in single digits had two percent of people voting for a Third Party candidate and still seven percent of people undecided. We think some of that Third Party vote ay have been intended for Daggett and Daggett should likely pick-up some of that undecided vote.

So who will win the whole thing? The Pollster.com average puts the race at even. When looking at the most recent polls it seems polls with undecided numbers six percent or higher goes towards the Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine. The polls with lower numbers of undecideds lean towards Republican challenger Chris Christie. What does this mean? We’ll see soon.

SOURCE:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/09-nj-gov-ge-cvc.php

Daggett in double digit polling, pull more votes from Corzine than Cristie...

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chirs Daggett is at 11% in the latest Public Policy Polling poll. Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Democratic Incumbent Jon Corzine 47-41. Christie has now stretched-out to a six point lead after a being with-in a point or even ahead in some polls.

So what effect is Chris Daggett having? The conventional wisdom is the he is hurting the Republican challenger, but the poll results show he’s conventional wisdom is wrong.

Tom Jensen writes on the Public Policy Polling’s blog, “…it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie… 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.”

SOURCE:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/christie-leads.html

Major NJ newspaper re-ups its endorsement of independent candidate…

Major New Jersey newspaper re-ups its endorsement of independent candidate for governor Chirs Daggett. The Star-Ledger newspapers editorial board on November 1st wrote, “Several weeks ago, we endorsed independent candidate Chris Daggett for governor… we renew that endorsement today with even greater conviction.”

The board says only Daggett is treating, “taxpayers, including public employees, as rational adults able to handle the harsh truth about the state’s dire financial condition and the need for belt-tightening by all… Unfortunately, only Daggett has treated voters and taxpayers to this truth.”

The newspaper criticizes incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie, “(the two candidates) makes no pretense of continuing the infamous homeowner rebates — a shameless scam in which the state takes taxpayer money with one hand and, good Samaritan that it is, gives some of it back with the other. It’s the kind of deal you might expect from any three-card monte dealer in Manhattan.”

They even argue that if voters think Daggett will lose the race, they still should still cast a ballot for Daggett. The editorial board writes, “...the value of a vote is not limited to picking a winner… it’s more critical function is to send those who govern in Trenton a clear signal that they’ve gone badly wrong, that radical reform is needed.”

The wrap-up by writing, “Only by sending Chris Daggett to Trenton will voters make it clear that the era of wretched excess and irresponsible spending in Trenton must end — now.”

SOURCE:

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2009/11/choose_real_change_chris_dagge.html

Tens of thousand of people pledging to vote for Daggett on website… Is it true?

Tens of thousand of people are pledging to vote for independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett on DaggettPledge.com. The website says more than 20,000 people have signed-up to pledge to cast a vote.

The website asks for voters names, town, e-mail address along with some other optional information. The Thirds has no doubt that team Daggett will receive a serious number of votes on election day after running a good campaign and getting a number of newspaper endorsments, but we question if the 20,000+ is a real number.

Alexander Higgins of Brick, New Jersey registered the site on October 29th and two days later has 20,000+ pledges. More than 400 pledges per hour seems kind of high for a brand new website. Is this a trick or a treat for the Daggett campaign on Halloween day? We’re not sure.

If we are wrong and a non-campaign website for a candidate can get 20,000+ people to fill out a form in just a matter of hours Corzine, Cristie, the Democrats and Republicans will have a very scary Tuesday night. No matter what, we do wish Chris Daggett and all of New Jersey the best of luck on election day.

SOURCE:

http://daggettpledge.com/

Newspapers says: Vote for Daggett, the only positive one…

The Hunterdon County Democrat newspaper says vote for Daggett. The newspaper endorsed independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett.

Jon Corzine and Democrats are guilty of, “ever-increasing debt and one-shot budget gimmicks.” As for Republican Chris Christie they say the prosecutor is not right for the Governor’s Office, “cracking down on lawbreakers is far different from juggling the nuances, personalities and pressures of running state government.

So why Daggett? The paper says, “…both parties have failed and the voters' best choice is the independent Chris Daggett. Unencumbered by party, he would have to pursue compromises and alliances that would break the partisan gridlock. Most of the positive vision advanced in the campaign has been by Daggett.”

SOURCE:

http://www.nj.com/hunterdon-county-democrat/index.ssf/2009/10/vote_for_daggett_holt_sworen_d.html

15% of New Jersey voters planning to vote for other options…

15% of New Jersey voters are planning to vote for other options in the Governor's race according to a new Stockton College/Zogby International Survey. The poll showed 14% of voters plan to vote for independent Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett, and 1% plan to vote for another person beyond Daggett or the Republican or Democrat. The “other” was not specified in the poll.

The poll showed incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine up 40-39% to Republican challenger Chris Christie.

SOURCE:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1761

Rasmussen still shows low support for Daggett…

Rasmussen Polls are still shows low support for Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial Candidate Chris Daggett. Rasmussen shows 8% of voters are leaning for Daggett, compared with 46% for Republican challenger Chris Christie and Incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine getting 43%.

Rasmussen says Daggett’s numbers are, “up a point from earlier in the week but down three from two weeks ago.” Rasumssen says, “more than 20% of the state’s voters have considered voting for Daggett at some point along the way”.

Rasmussen polls have show significantly lower support for Daggett than other polls over the past few weeks.

SOURCE:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor

Who is that on your heals? It’s Chris Daggett!

Who is that on your heals? It’s Chris Daggett! NJ.com reprinted a Associated Press article on the new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll showing another surge for Independent Gubernatorial Candidate Chris Daggett. The polls showed incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine at 39%, Republican challenger Chris Christie at 36% and Independent Chris Daggett at 20%. That means five percent of people of are still either undecided or voting for another candidate.

That is a six percent jump for Daggett over the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll. It appears at this point it appears the rallying cry of Chirs Christie “A vote for Daggett is a vote for Corzine” may be turned around to “A vote for Christie is a vote for Corzine”.

The biggest issues is that it appears about 40% of New Jersey voters lack the ability to vote for anybody other than a Democrat. If Cozine falls to 35% in polling, Daggett very likely will win.

SOURCE:

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/10/latest_nj_governors_race_poll.html

Daggett taking heat for not having huge bank roll for staff salaries…

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett is taking heat for not having huge bank roll for staff salaries. Opponents of Daggett are seizing on an article on PolitickerNJ.com writer by Matt Friedman. The story starts, “…Daggett is stretching his limited campaign resources by not providing health insurance to his campaign staff, and by paying them not as employees but as independent contractors -- - a move that saves him some money because he does not have to pay a payroll tax.”

The Daggett campaign explains they have to pay people as contractors because of the massive fundrasing differences between Daggett and the major party candidates. Friedman writes, “Daggett has raised $1.1 million to Christie's $9.6 million and Corzine's $16.8 million.”

The article said the Daggett campaign had only $109,000 on hand.

SOURCE:

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34116/save-money-daggett-avoids-payroll-taxes-and-health-insurance-staff

Undecided voters in NJ Gov race do not like Corzine or Christie… Hello Daggett!

Undecided voters in the New Jersey Gubernatorial race do not like Corzine or Christie… Hello Daggett! Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling broke down some of the numbers from their recent poll. Eight percent of people said they are still undecided. So, who are the undecided voters?

Jensen found undecided voters are more Democrat than Republican, more voted for President Barack Obama than not, they even voted for Governor Corzine 58-25 in the last election. Jenson writes, “Usually you'd look at those numbers and say they're stubborn base voters who will eventually come home, advantage Corzine. The thing is they don't like him- just 17% have a favorable opinion of him. But they don't like Chris Christie either- just 20% view him positively.”

Let just pretend: The undecided that like Governor Corzine vote for him. The undecided that like Christie vote for him. The rest of the undecided vote for Daggett. If that would happen Daggett would pick-up 4.8% of the vote and put him close to 20% of the overall vote.

SOURCE:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/looking-at-undecideds-in-new-jersey.html

New poll shows Daggett in the mid-teen, still waiting for a post-Star-Ledger endorsement poll

Quinnipiac University released a new poll on the New Jersey Gubernatorial race. Independent challenger Chris Daggett came in with 14% of the vote. The poll showed Republican challenger Christopher Christie getting 41% of likely voters, with 40% choosing Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine.

The poll surveyed 1,264 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points making it likely one of the more accurate polls taken so far, but there is still on big factor that could skew this poll. The New Jersey Star-Ledger endorsed Chris Daggett on October 9th, the poll was taken from October 7 – 12.

So what can we learn from this poll? In every Quinnipiac poll Daggett’s votes have gone up, but is he running out of time? Daggett’s voter lean slightly to Chris Christie as a second choice, but only by a 40-33 margin.

The poll shows that 73% of likely voters have not heard enough about Daggett to form an opinion, that number is sure to shrink. Where will those voters go?

The biggest negative for Daggett is that voters believe he “Can't win/Spoiler”. If Daggett can get people to believe, his biggest negative goes away, and he become much more relevant and viable.

Fellow independent candidate attacks Daggett…

Fellow independent candidate attacks independent Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett. Matt Friedman writes on PolitickerNJ.com that independent candidate Jason Cullen attacked Daggett calling him a “product of the Republican Party… (who is) playing a great game of deception with the voters of New Jersey.” He said Daggett tax plan will not work.

According to the article, “(Cullen) has raised $2,547 so far for his gubernatorial race and has $838 on hand.”

SOURCE:

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34026/cullen-goes-after-daggett