Doug Hoffman re-concedes the election…

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman re-concedes the election for New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

Jordan Fabian writes on TheHill.com, that after unconceding the race, Hoffman has looked at the latest ballot counting and realized that he lost. With re-counts Democrat Bill Owen’s lead has been cut in half, but that is not enough for Hoffman to win.

Hoffman was quoted saying he lost this race but will stay active in politics, "I plan to stay active in politics and in the weeks and months ahead hope to be able to personally thank all those who made this race so close and exciting," said Hoffman.

Many people expect Hoffman to become the Republican Party and Conservative Party candidate for the same seat in the 2010 election.

SOURCE:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/69339-hoffman-reconcedes-in-ny-23

Hoffman not giving-up any more…

Hoffman not giving-up any more on his special election race for New York's 23rd Congressional District. Jordan Fabian writes on TheHill.com, “Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has ‘unconceded’ in New York's special House election.”

Hoffman is “unconceding” after the vote count shrunk to only to 3,026 votes, on election night the difference was 5,335 votes between Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens.

The “unconceding” is happening because there are more than 10,000 absentee ballots that have not yet been counted. Hoffman would have to take more than 65 percent of the absentee ballots to win.

SOURCE:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/67997-hoffman-unconcedes-in-ny-23

NY23 special election is over, not so fast…

The New York 23rd Congressional District special election is over, not so fast according to Syracuse.com. Mark Weiner writes on Syracuse.com the two key pieces of information that Conservative Party Candidate Doug Hoffman used to concede may not have been true.

When Hoffman conceded he was down 5,335 votes. Weiner writes, “Now a recanvassing in the 11-county district shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes over Hoffman… The new vote totals mean the race will be decided by absentee ballots, of which about 10,200 were distributed...”

Owens was still sworn-in to congress even through according to Weiner, “the state sent a letter to the House Clerk last week explaining that no winner had been determined in the 23rd District, and therefore the state had not certified the election.”

SOURCE:

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/its_not_over_recanvassing_shows_ny23_race.html

Political Handicapper: NY23 still a toss-up…

Political Handicapper “The Rothenberg Political Report” shows the 2010 New York 23rd Congressional as a toss-up seat. They say, “…(the victory was) good news for Democrats… But the dynamic that helped Owens win- including a divided Republican Party- can't be ignored and aren't likely to be replicated again.”

We find the race to become even more of a toss-up when a major newspaper in the District takes a swipe at Owens for “(Breaking) 4 Campaign Promsises in first hours in Congress”.

Also Doug Hoffman appeared to be a lock to win the election with this Third Party run and grassroots support. Then the Republican establishment got involved, took out ads, and unintentional submarined Hoffman’s campaign.

The Thirds calls this race a “head-scratcher” too.

SOURCE:

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2009/11/new-york-23-remains-toss-up.html

http://www.gouverneurtimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7623:owens-to-break-campaign-promises&catid=60:st-lawrence-news&Itemid=175

Scozzafava feelings hurt, offered to join Third Party…

Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava who dropped put of the New York 23rd Congressional District and then endorsed the Democrat apparently has had her feelings hurt and has been offered a spot in a Third Party.

Jude Seymour writes on WatertownDailyTimes.com that Assemblywoman Scozzafava’s feelings were hurt by Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Seymour quotes Assemblywoman Scozzafava saying, “There was no sense of compassion in this man at all… I know a lot of people that were hurt by the tone of the campaign that Mr. Hoffman ran.” Assemblywoamn Scozzafava said Hoffman never asked for he endorsement after she quit the race.

Seymour also writes that New York Independence Party Chairman Frank MacKay will invite Assemblywoman Scozzafava to, “carry his party as her main affiliation”. The Assemblywoman said she has no plans to change parties – but we have also seen her change her mind pretty quickly in the past.

SOURCE:

http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091105/NEWS03/311059964

Is GOP brand so damaged it cost a conservative seat in Congress?

Is the Republican brand so damaged it cost a conservative seat in Congress? If appears the New York 23rd Congressional District special election will go to Democrat Bill Owens. This was after some polls put Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman leading the race with 51% of the vote less than one week prior to election day.

It seems that Hoffman dropped about five percent in the very last days of the race. Was it because of something Hoffman did, was it Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava backing the Democrat after she pulled out of the race, was it the performance of Democrat Bill Owens, was it the visits from high-profile Democrats, or was that because the Republican Party started backing Hoffman?

Hoffman seems to have had much more momentum and better polling results as the Third Party option with some Republicans supporting him versus the Republican establishment publicly backing Hoffman.

SOURCE:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/upstate.html

Chuck Todd: Being independent is a positive for “many voters”

Today NBC’s Chuck Todd wrote a “briefing-column” on the major elections today. A key point in his column is that being an independent or Third Party candidate is a major plus to many voters.

He wrote, “We know that not being associated with either political party is a net plus with many voters — from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's expected victory, to Chris Daggett's influence in New Jersey, to Doug Hoffman's rise in New York's 23rd Congressional District.”

In a section titled “The angry independent” Todd wrote, “Candidates who stand up to the establishment and find a reform message will benefit, no matter their party label.”

SOURCE:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33591486/ns/politics-more_politics/

Club for Growth sends more than $1,000,000 to help Third Party candidate…

Club for Growth sends more than $1,000,000 to help Third Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the New York 23rd Congressional special election. Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party ticket. The Club for Growth and Club for Growth PAC spent more the $550,000 on television ads plus more than $80,000 on mail, phone, Other advertisements promotion Hoffman or questioning his opponents.

Their bundlers also got more the 2,400 donations to the Hoffman campaign for more than $350,000.

The Club for Growth says the grand total was $1,008,388.

SOURCE:

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2009/11/ny23_fact_sheet.php

RNC running ads in race with no candidate…

The Republican National Committee is running radio ads in New York’s 23rd Congressional District special election. The radio ad a number of times encouraged people to “"vote conservative", did we mention there is still a Conservative Party candidate in the race?

The Republican quit the race and decided to back the Democrat in the race. So, the Republicans have decided to back Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

The Thirds wonders if this backing by the Republican National Committee could actually hurt candidate Hoffman. Hoffman backers across the nation decided to support him as a third party alternative.

Even in recent polling independents have bolted to the Democrats versus the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman who previously was leading in independents. It is important to note there are a number of undecided independents, those independents could break for Hoffman.

SOURCE:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/65847-rnc-in-ny-23-vote-conservative

The story of election 2009 in one tweet…

The story of election 2009 could possibly be made clear in one tweet. Whoever is running AmhestGOP tweeted, “This is one Republican that isn't sending one more dime to the RNC, NRSC, or NRCC. I'll send it to Club for Growth instead.”

That sentiment could be the largest effect of election-day 2009. The Republican hand-picked liberal-leaning candidate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava was damaged goods from the start and end-up quitting mid-race and supporting her former Democratic opponent.

The Republican and conservative establishment almost immediately revolted against Assemblywoman Scozzafava. She was a terrible pick their mind. Now the, “RNC, NRSC, or NRCC” cannot be trusted.

The Thirds believes the Club for Growth will see a huge increase in donations thanks to the Republicans botching New York’s 23rd Congressional District special election. We also expect to see other conservative groups see an increase in funds, but the Club for Growth established itself as a major game changer and king maker. That is at least until November 2010, politics can be fickle.

SOURCE:

http://twitter.com/AmherstGOP

Independents leaving Third Party candidate for Democrat?

Are Independents really leaving the Third Party candidate in New York’s 23rd Congressional District for the Democrat? A new Sienna College poll shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman leading Democrat Bill Owens 41-36%. The Republican who quit the race and endorsed the Democrat, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, still picked-up 6%. That leaves 17% in the undecided column, before Assemblywoman Scozzafava dropped-out there was only 9% undecided.

The most interesting portion of this poll shows that Doug Hoffman who was winning with independents prior to the Scozzafava drop-out at 40-35-15, is now in second place among independents at 43-37-2.

Is it possible that independents are going to feel their independence Scozzafava-style and bolt for the current part in power?

But, in predicting the election-day winner perhaps the largest sign is the favorable/unfavorable ratings. Doug Hoffman’s favorable ratings continue their upward trend, he is at 47% favorable compared to 33% unfavorable. That’s higher in favorable and lower in unfavorable since the last poll. Bill Owens has gone in the opposite direction. His favorable slipped to 37% and unfavorable ticked-up to 38%.

No matter what happens, it has been an interesting month in the New York North Country.

SOURCE:

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/23rd%20CD%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%204%20--%20FINAL.pdf

Third Party candidate showing more than 50% in polling…

Third Party candidate Doug Hoffman is showing more than 50% in polling for New York's 23rd Congressional District special election.

Public Policy Polling shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman leading 51-34-13 in the race for the House of Representatives. This is the first time Hoffman any candidate has passed the 50% threshold.

Tom Jensen writes, “The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava's actions over the course of the weekend.”

Hoffman has commanding lead among Republicans and a solid lead in independents. Hoffman is still picking-up 21% of Democrats.

SOURCE:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/hoffman-leads-big.html

Spokesman for Republican backs Third Party candidate, says his old boss is wrong…

Spokesman for liberal-leaning Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is backing Third Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the New York 23rd Congressional District special election. Matt Burns, Assemblywoman Scozzafava’s old spokesman, says his old boss is wrong to quit her campaign and back the Democrat in the race.

Burns said, “Dede is entitled to her own opinion, as is everyone, but I am disappointed by and disagree with her decision to support Bill Owens. I am supporting Doug Hoffman, because denying Nancy Pelosi another foot soldier is vital to restoring fiscal responsibility and common sense in Washington.”

SOURCE:

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=163158344747&ref=mf

Scozzafava the turncoat, actions speak louder words…

Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava the liberal-leaning Republican quit the New York 23rd Congressional special election as Republicans and Conservatives began to back the Third Party candidate Doug Hoffman of the Conservative Party. Assemblywoman Scozzafava kept arguing right up until she quit the race she was a Republican and would support the Republican Party.

She lied. Assemblywoman Scozzafava has now decided to support her former Democratic opponent Bill Owens.

WatertownDailyTimes.com is reporting Senator Chuck Schumer was one of many people that urged Assemblywoman Scozzafava to bolt and back the Democrat. She did. Bill Owens the Democratic candidate said he was “honored” by Scozzafava and in a statement the said, “Now more than ever we need bipartisan solutions to help bring jobs to Upstate New York to get our economy back on track and move our country forward.”

The Hoffman camp called Assemblywoman Scozzafava a turncoat. Hoffman’s Communications Advisor said, “This afternoon Dede Scozzafava betrayed the GOP.“

Scozzafava said on her campaign website, “…I have been always been an independent voice for the people I represent. I have stood for our honest principles, and a truthful discussion of the issues, even when it cost me personally and politically… It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.”

We at The Thirds truly respect being independent and think that it took a lot of guts for Assemblywoman Scozzafava to break with the Republican Party and endorse the Democrat Bill Owens. Unfortunately we respect honesty even more. Just a few weeks ago Scozzafava, through her campaign, pledged to support the Republicans. Assemblywoman Scozzafava just proved that she was the damaged candidate that conservatives believed in the first place.

SOURCE:

http://watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091101/NEWS09/911019992

Being a third party contender allowed Doug Hoffman to rise in special election…

Being a third party contender allowed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman to rise in New York’s 23rd Congressional District special election. That is the take from MSNBC’s Chuck Todd.

Todd writes in the “First Read” column on msnbc.com, “Hoffman's rise has been thanks to a combination of conservatives and independents who apparently have been attracted by Hoffman's anti-Washington and anti-party establishment message. It's still an open question among some Republicans about whether Hoffman could have been as successful as the actual Republican nominee; running as an outsider has been a BIG benefit to his bid.”

This argument shows that Third Party candidates can tap into some momentum from general Washington disgust. But they still need at least one “trump card” or a few “face cards” to become real threats.

SOURCE:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/10/31/2115616.aspx

What does it take to get your point across? About half a million dollars!

What does it take to get your point across? About half a million dollars! Rebecca Sinderbrand breaksdown on CNN.com the amount of money spend in the New York 23rd Congressional District special election.

She writes nearly $1.8 million worth of ads have been spent in the special election, “…roughly $429,000 worth of ads have aired on Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman's behalf.”

So we now understand that you need to have a huge ground swell against a weak candidate plus about half a million dollars. This can be the formula for Third Party candidates, while it may not be attractive, but this is the formula. Another key part of the formula is special interests, Non-candidates have spent more in New York’s 23rd Congressional District than the candidates themselves.

Now with the Republican dropping-out of the race it appears Doug Hoffman is cruising, but it is an election and 20% of the electorate still needs to make-up their mind.

SOURCE:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/10/30/ad-wars-ny-23-flirts-with-the-2-million-mark/

Before GOP drop-out, Third Party candidate nearly had a majority of votes…

Before GOP drop-out, Third Party candidate Doug Hoffman nearly had a majority of votes in the New York 23rd Congressional District special election.

Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling say they showed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman crushing the competition with a 45-26-17 lead over Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava.

Now that Assemblywoman Scozzafava is out of the race Jensen writes on Public Policy Polling’s blog, "I expect Hoffman will win easily now, but if our early numbers were any indication what Scozzafava did doesn't make much difference- he was going to win easily with or without her in the race."

Assemblywoman Scozzafava suspended her campaign late Saturday morning after new polling data showed she was getting crushed in the race and had very little hope of winning the election. We are guessing the Assemblywoman saw numbers similar to what Public Policy Polling found and realized she had to drop-out to have any way to save face and possibly run for office again in the future.

SOURCE:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/ny-23-polling-odyssey.html

Third Party candidate forces Republican out of race…

Third Party candidate forces the Republican out of the race for New York's special election in the 23rd Congressional District. Liberal-leaning Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is suspending her campaign for Congress. She was forced out of the race as Republicans and conservatives bolted to support Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. The last straw on the “political-camels” back may have been former New York Governor George Pataki backing Doug Hoffman.

Scozzafava released a statement on her website saying that she has no shot at winning the election, but did not ever mention Doug Hoffman or for the matter the Democratic candidate Bill Owens. Her statement said, “…I care deeply and passionately about (the District’s) people and our way of life. Whether as a candidate for Congress, a State Assemblywoman or a small town Mayor… and today I again seek to act for the good of our community.”

She then explained, “I’ve been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record… It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so.”

The last paragraph was clear, “On Election Day my name will appear on the ballot, but victory is unlikely. To those who support me – and to those who choose not to – I offer my sincerest thanks.”

This showed the success of the Tea Party movement, they ran the Republican Party hand-picked candidate out of the race. This also shows Assemblywoman Scozzafava, while a damaged politician, is a smart politician. She had no hope of winning this race. If Assemblywoman Scozzafava would have stubbornly stayed in and caused the Democrat Bill Owens to win, she would have likely been done in Republican Party politics. She still may be done, but the Assemblywoman still has some hope and favors to cash-in with party bosses. Those same part bosses that have a dozen eggs on their faces for selecting Assemblywoman Scozzafava to run in the first place.

While Doug Hoffman is not a true third party candidate, he is a Republican running on the Conservative Party ticket, this shows that third party candidates can have a huge effect on a race.

SOURCE:

http://dedeforcongress.com/news/read.aspx?id=73

Former Republican Governor of New York endorses Third Party candidate…

Ben Smith on Politico.com published a statement former New York Governor George Pataki’s endorsement of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York’s 23rd Congressional Special Election.

Pataki, a Republican, did not mention liberal-leaning Republican backed Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava and only said Doug Hoffman was the correct candidate to vote for in the race.

Pataki said, “…I’m deeply concerned about the course of our nation and the outcome of the election in the 23rd Congressional District… we cannot afford another vote for higher taxes, we cannot afford another vote for government run health care and we absolutely cannot afford another vote to take away from hard working men and women the right to secret ballot. That is why tonight, I’m proud to endorse Doug Hoffman, a Republican, running on the Conservative line for Congress in the 23rd Congressional District… And Doug Hoffman can win.”

SOURCE:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1009/Pataki_endorses_Hoffman.html

Hoffman tied for lead, and looking good…

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman tied for the lead in New York’s Special Election in the 23rd Congressional District.

A Daily Kos poll of likely voters shows Doug Hoffman tied with Democrat Bill Owens for a lead in the race. The poll shows Bill Owesn at 33% and Doug Hoffman at 32%. Liberal-leaning Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is well behind at 21%.

The biggest take away from this is that 12% of Republicans are still undecided and 14% of Independents are still undecided. Republicans and Independents are both breaking for Hoffman, also only Hoffman has a clear advantage in favorability rating from Republicans and Independents. Even if all of undecided Democrats break for Owens, Hoffman can win if a majority of Republicans and Independents break for him.

SOURCE:

http://lcvonlinenews.blogspot.com/2009/10/house-ny-23-2009_29.html