Close to buying an election - the value of a vote?

The campaign spending results are in for the New Jersey Gubernatorial race. The numbers show the value of a vote. If a candidate is unpopular enough even spending gobs of money is not enough to buy an election – but it is pretty close. New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine lost his re-election bid by about 4% of the vote.

Here is how much the three major candidates spent in the race, and the amount of money they spent per vote they received:

Governor Jon Corzine $27,000,000 - $25.60/vote

Governor-elect Chris Christie $11,400,000 - $9.88/vote

Independent Chris Daggett $1,600,000 - $11.70/vote

Governor Corzine’s big spending brought him close to winning re-election but even spending more money than his competitors combine did not give him the win. Does these stats show a need for campaign finance reform, or does it just show Corzine was as incompetent running an elections as voters believed he was in running the state?

On a side note, the Associate Press is reporting that Governor Corzine spent $131,000,000 of his own money running for office since 2000. Governor Corzine has run for Governor twice, and U.S. Senate once.

SOURCE:

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/35180/gubernatorial-campaign-spending-down-30

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9218487

2009 indy candidate for Governor calls for investigation…

The New Jersey Star-Ledger is reporting former independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett wants state to investigate robocalls that he says “severely damaged” his candidacy.

Matt Friedman wriets on PolitickerNJ.com the question comes from, “The call, in which a woman’s voice attacks Republican Chris Christie for being ‘wrong where it matters most,’ urges listeners to ‘remember Chris Daggett's words: It's never wrong to vote for the right person.’”

The Democratic State Committee’s admitted that it paid for the robocalls. The Daggett camp is saying the call violated state law "to support or defeat a candidate for Governor or in aid of the candidacy of a candidate for Governor in the general election."

We’ll see what happens. We’re not sure how Daggett will fair in this battle. Possibly his most effective focus could be changing election law that puts Democrat and Republican candidates on the top of each ballot and buries third party candidates in a random order at the bottom of the ballot – he’s already sued over this one with the Libertarian candidate for New Jersey Governor.

SOURCE:

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/35005/daggett-wants-robocall-investigated

Daggett falls victim to Corzine fear…

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett may have fallen victim to Corzine fear. With 99% of the votes counted Chris Daggett came in third place with 5.7% of the vote.

That 5.7% of the vote was about five to ten percent lower than recent polls showed. The Thirds has to believe most of those five to ten percent of people that left the Daggett went to Republican challenger, and now Governor-elect Chris Christie.

We believe this shift had to do that people wanted Governor Jon Corzine out of office even more than seeing their man in the office. Governor Corzine’s final election numbers were about two-percent higher than poll averages, but Governor-elect Christie’s final tally was about seven-percent higher than poll averages. That was the number of people that bolted from Daggett.

If Governor-elect Chris Christie wanted to make a real splash in New Jersey politics he should offer Chris Daggett a spot in his cabinet. Daggett could head-up Department of Environmental Protection again. You could also make arguments for Daggett to lead the Civil Service Commission, Department of Treasury, Department of the Treasury, New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission, Office of Economic Growth, Department of State, and Department of the Public Advocate. With his Governmental management background you could even argue Daggett could run the Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness.

Results with 99% reporting:

Chris Christie (Republican) 49.0%

Jon Corzine (Democrat) 44.4%

Chris Daggett (Independent for NJ) 5.7%

Kenneth R. Kaplan (Libertarian Party) 0.2%

Gary T. Steele (Leadership, Independence, Vision) 0.1%

Jason Cullen (People Not Politics) 0.1%

David R. Meiswinkle (Middle Class Empowerment) 0.1%

Kostas Petris (For The People) 0.1%

Gregory Pason (Socialist Party USA) 0.1%

Gary Stein (Various titles) 0.1%

Joshua Leinsdorf (Fair Election Party) 0.0%

Alvin Lindsay, Jr. (Lindsay for Governor) 0.0%

SOURCE:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/new-jersey.html

Good luck to all independent and Third Party candidates on the ballot today...

New York 23rd Congressional District special election:

Doug Hoffman - Conservative Party

New Jersey Governor:

Chris Daggett - Independent for NJ

Jason Cullen - People Not Politics

Kenneth R. Kaplan - Libertarian Party

Joshua Leinsdorf - Fair Election Party

Alvin Lindsay, Jr. - Lindsay for Governor

David R. Meiswinkle - Middle Class Empowerment

Gregory Pason - Socialist Party USA

Kostas Petris - For The People

Gary T. Steele - Leadership, Independence, Vision

Gary Stein – Various titles (Rock The Boat, Giv'm Heck Gary, Nice N Easy, Rush In, Stormy Weather, Just In Time, All The Way, Where Are You, I Have Dreamed, They All Laughed, These Foolish Things, A Fine Romance, Lear'n The Blues, Without A Song, Something Stupid, Street Of Dreams, All Alone, How About You, Pennies From Heaven & My Shining Hour Love And Marriage)

California 10th Congressional District special election:

Jerry Denham - American Independent

Jeremy Cloward - Green Party

Peace and Freedom Party - Mary C. McIlroy

Virginia statewide race:

None

Chuck Todd: Being independent is a positive for “many voters”

Today NBC’s Chuck Todd wrote a “briefing-column” on the major elections today. A key point in his column is that being an independent or Third Party candidate is a major plus to many voters.

He wrote, “We know that not being associated with either political party is a net plus with many voters — from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's expected victory, to Chris Daggett's influence in New Jersey, to Doug Hoffman's rise in New York's 23rd Congressional District.”

In a section titled “The angry independent” Todd wrote, “Candidates who stand up to the establishment and find a reform message will benefit, no matter their party label.”

SOURCE:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33591486/ns/politics-more_politics/

After saying no, New Jersey Democrats fess-up to robo-call…

After saying no, New Jersey Democrats fess-up to robo-call. Matt Friedman writes on PolitickerNJ.com, “The Democratic State Committee now admits paying for a robocall to Somerset County voters that slams Republican Chris Christie and promotes independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett. A Democratic spokeswoman says the party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, was not aware of the robocalls when he denied that the state committee had anything to do with them yesterday afternoon.”

There has been some accusations over the campaign that Chris Daggett is some kind of Manchurian-Independent to suck votes away from Republican challenger Chris Christie planned by incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.

Daggett has continually denied the claims and in fact polls show Daggett is sucking away more support from Governor Corzine than the Republican challenger Christie. Daggett was quoted saying he had no part in the robo-calls, “Voters hate robocalls. This is just another instance of the dishonest ways Democrats and Republicans use to win campaigns and to fool voters.”

There is also a pro-Governor Corzie robocall from President Obama that may ring some phones in New Jersey.

SOURCE:

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/34725/democrats-admit-paying-pro-daggett-call-obama-records-robocall-corzine

Reading Polls: Daggett will finish in double digits…

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett will finish in double digits on election night after looking at key polls on Pollster.com. Looking at the polls that ended on November 1st we see a few trends.

In all polls, except for one, Chris Daggett was getting double-digit support. The poll that shows Daggett only in single digits had two percent of people voting for a Third Party candidate and still seven percent of people undecided. We think some of that Third Party vote ay have been intended for Daggett and Daggett should likely pick-up some of that undecided vote.

So who will win the whole thing? The Pollster.com average puts the race at even. When looking at the most recent polls it seems polls with undecided numbers six percent or higher goes towards the Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine. The polls with lower numbers of undecideds lean towards Republican challenger Chris Christie. What does this mean? We’ll see soon.

SOURCE:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/09-nj-gov-ge-cvc.php

Daggett in double digit polling, pull more votes from Corzine than Cristie...

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chirs Daggett is at 11% in the latest Public Policy Polling poll. Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Democratic Incumbent Jon Corzine 47-41. Christie has now stretched-out to a six point lead after a being with-in a point or even ahead in some polls.

So what effect is Chris Daggett having? The conventional wisdom is the he is hurting the Republican challenger, but the poll results show he’s conventional wisdom is wrong.

Tom Jensen writes on the Public Policy Polling’s blog, “…it seems like Daggett's presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie… 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett's backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.”

SOURCE:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/christie-leads.html

Major NJ newspaper re-ups its endorsement of independent candidate…

Major New Jersey newspaper re-ups its endorsement of independent candidate for governor Chirs Daggett. The Star-Ledger newspapers editorial board on November 1st wrote, “Several weeks ago, we endorsed independent candidate Chris Daggett for governor… we renew that endorsement today with even greater conviction.”

The board says only Daggett is treating, “taxpayers, including public employees, as rational adults able to handle the harsh truth about the state’s dire financial condition and the need for belt-tightening by all… Unfortunately, only Daggett has treated voters and taxpayers to this truth.”

The newspaper criticizes incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie, “(the two candidates) makes no pretense of continuing the infamous homeowner rebates — a shameless scam in which the state takes taxpayer money with one hand and, good Samaritan that it is, gives some of it back with the other. It’s the kind of deal you might expect from any three-card monte dealer in Manhattan.”

They even argue that if voters think Daggett will lose the race, they still should still cast a ballot for Daggett. The editorial board writes, “...the value of a vote is not limited to picking a winner… it’s more critical function is to send those who govern in Trenton a clear signal that they’ve gone badly wrong, that radical reform is needed.”

The wrap-up by writing, “Only by sending Chris Daggett to Trenton will voters make it clear that the era of wretched excess and irresponsible spending in Trenton must end — now.”

SOURCE:

http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2009/11/choose_real_change_chris_dagge.html

Tens of thousand of people pledging to vote for Daggett on website… Is it true?

Tens of thousand of people are pledging to vote for independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett on DaggettPledge.com. The website says more than 20,000 people have signed-up to pledge to cast a vote.

The website asks for voters names, town, e-mail address along with some other optional information. The Thirds has no doubt that team Daggett will receive a serious number of votes on election day after running a good campaign and getting a number of newspaper endorsments, but we question if the 20,000+ is a real number.

Alexander Higgins of Brick, New Jersey registered the site on October 29th and two days later has 20,000+ pledges. More than 400 pledges per hour seems kind of high for a brand new website. Is this a trick or a treat for the Daggett campaign on Halloween day? We’re not sure.

If we are wrong and a non-campaign website for a candidate can get 20,000+ people to fill out a form in just a matter of hours Corzine, Cristie, the Democrats and Republicans will have a very scary Tuesday night. No matter what, we do wish Chris Daggett and all of New Jersey the best of luck on election day.

SOURCE:

http://daggettpledge.com/

Newspapers says: Vote for Daggett, the only positive one…

The Hunterdon County Democrat newspaper says vote for Daggett. The newspaper endorsed independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett.

Jon Corzine and Democrats are guilty of, “ever-increasing debt and one-shot budget gimmicks.” As for Republican Chris Christie they say the prosecutor is not right for the Governor’s Office, “cracking down on lawbreakers is far different from juggling the nuances, personalities and pressures of running state government.

So why Daggett? The paper says, “…both parties have failed and the voters' best choice is the independent Chris Daggett. Unencumbered by party, he would have to pursue compromises and alliances that would break the partisan gridlock. Most of the positive vision advanced in the campaign has been by Daggett.”

SOURCE:

http://www.nj.com/hunterdon-county-democrat/index.ssf/2009/10/vote_for_daggett_holt_sworen_d.html

15% of New Jersey voters planning to vote for other options…

15% of New Jersey voters are planning to vote for other options in the Governor's race according to a new Stockton College/Zogby International Survey. The poll showed 14% of voters plan to vote for independent Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett, and 1% plan to vote for another person beyond Daggett or the Republican or Democrat. The “other” was not specified in the poll.

The poll showed incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine up 40-39% to Republican challenger Chris Christie.

SOURCE:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1761

Rasmussen still shows low support for Daggett…

Rasmussen Polls are still shows low support for Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial Candidate Chris Daggett. Rasmussen shows 8% of voters are leaning for Daggett, compared with 46% for Republican challenger Chris Christie and Incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine getting 43%.

Rasmussen says Daggett’s numbers are, “up a point from earlier in the week but down three from two weeks ago.” Rasumssen says, “more than 20% of the state’s voters have considered voting for Daggett at some point along the way”.

Rasmussen polls have show significantly lower support for Daggett than other polls over the past few weeks.

SOURCE:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor

Another New Jersey Newspaper endorses Daggett for Governor…

Another New Jersey Newspaper endorses independent Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett for Governor. The editorial praised Daggett as being the only candidate that will not be hamstrung by the party politics that caused havoc on the state.

The paper’s editorial board writes that an endorsement for Corzine was a nearly laughable idea. They wrote, “New Jersey has consistently earned a ranking of 50th in business climate, but our politicians would choose economic suicide for the people they represent than suggest solutions they view as political suicide for themselves.”

They then compliment Daggett saying he is the only candidate with a clear vision for the future, “Daggett’s willingness to offer a detailed plan on how to cut property taxes and begin to address the state’s upcoming budget crisis and long-term debt contrast sharply with both Corzine, who is running on his record, and Republican Chris Christie.”

The newspaper already once endorsed Republican Chris Christie in the Republican primary but felt he has come-up short. Writing, “Unfortunately, too much of the current Christie campaign seems to be about Republicans saying, ‘it’s our turn, he’s our best chance to win,’ and not what they want to do for our state.”

So can Daggett be effective and can Daggett win? The newspaper says yes. They argue, “Daggett’s campaign is based on the premise that only an independent – someone who doesn’t have to worry about whether his party is going to get campaign contributions from special interests or whether his party is going to lose seats in the next election – can make the difficult decisions needed to fix New Jersey… Democrats and Republicans have been arguing for months that a vote for Daggett is a wasted vote because he cannot win… Corzine and Christie have both been dropping (in polls), and it only takes 35 percent to win in a close three-way race.”

They wrap-up with a reversal of the theme a vote for Daggett is a wasted vote writing, “Neither the Democratic nor the Republican candidates deserve your vote. Chris Daggett does. Give it to him, and maybe we can change New Jersey. Vote for Chris Daggett on Nov. 3.”

SOURCE:

http://www.recordernewspapers.com/articles/2009/10/22/the_citizen/opinion/editorial/doc4adf7fd32df59220631560.txt

More confirmation Daggett is on the rise, undecided are breaking for him…

More confirmation Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett is on the rise. A Survey USA poll shows Chris Daggett jumping to 19% in the race for Governor.

As Daggett rises, the other two candidates are standing pat. This means nearly all of the voters that were undecided are now looking towards the independent. Only one percent of the voters were still undecided.

This is great news for camp Daggett because if the voters that are going for Corzine or Christie move to the undecided column, it is likely just the mid-point in a trip to Daggett’s column and not the Democrat or Republican.

SOURCE:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7db77e05-7dee-44e9-b5c1-3cceb228e39c

Who would be better with the budget? If ad spending vs. votes Daggett is best by a mile.

Who would be better with the budget? If ad spending vs. votes Daggett is best by a mile.

Let’s trust the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in the New Jersey Gubernatorial electiuon is correct. It shows incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine at 39%, Republican challenger Chris Christie at 36% and Independent Chris Daggett at 20%.

Let’s also trust a graphic in the Wall Street Journal sourced from TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG is correct on television ad spending. Governor Jon Corzine has spend $17.2 million, Chris Christie has spent $14.2 (Christie number includes $5.2 million from the Republican Governor’s Association), and Independent Chris Daggett has spent $300,000.

Let’s do a little division. What candidate is getting the best bang for the buck?

Corzine: $441,026 for every one percent of the vote.

Christie: $394.444 for every one percent of the vote.

Daggett: $15,000 for every one percent of the vote.

If Daggett can be this effective for getting votes for that little of amount of money, what could he do with the state budget?

SOURCE:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125617045643600361.html

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/10/latest_nj_governors_race_poll.html

Congrats to MSNBC ‘s First Read…

Today’s “First Read” political column on MSNBC.com focused only on two issues. Both of them strongly focused on Third Party or Independent candidates. We are the third are very happy to see the national media take a close look at candidates without a “D” or “R” next to their name.

The first half of the column mentions the New Jersey Gubernatorial race noting, “independent Chris Daggett continuing to surge” after reaching 20% in a recent poll.

The back half of the column looked at New York’s special election in the 23rd Congressional District. It talked about Ken Blackwell’s backing of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Blackwell is a fellow on the Family Research Council fellow and a member of the Club for Growth board of directors. The Hoffman portion of the column also mentions Hoffman’s appearance on the Glenn Beck radio show and television show.

SOURCE:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/10/22/2105647.aspx

Who is that on your heals? It’s Chris Daggett!

Who is that on your heals? It’s Chris Daggett! NJ.com reprinted a Associated Press article on the new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll showing another surge for Independent Gubernatorial Candidate Chris Daggett. The polls showed incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine at 39%, Republican challenger Chris Christie at 36% and Independent Chris Daggett at 20%. That means five percent of people of are still either undecided or voting for another candidate.

That is a six percent jump for Daggett over the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll. It appears at this point it appears the rallying cry of Chirs Christie “A vote for Daggett is a vote for Corzine” may be turned around to “A vote for Christie is a vote for Corzine”.

The biggest issues is that it appears about 40% of New Jersey voters lack the ability to vote for anybody other than a Democrat. If Cozine falls to 35% in polling, Daggett very likely will win.

SOURCE:

http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/10/latest_nj_governors_race_poll.html

Daggett needs a feather boa, his polling numbers look like Ventura’s…

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett needs a feather boa, his polling numbers look like former Minnsota Governor Jesse Ventura’s numbers. That’s the take from Aaron Blake writing on TheHill.com.

Blake writes, “New polling shows the independent New Jersey Governor candidate is about where former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura (I) was at this point in his 1998 race…”

Blakes cites a Rutgers/Eagleton poll that has Chris Daggett polling at 20 percent, which is his best showing yet. Blake writes, “By comparison, Ventura's initial bump in polling registered in a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted Oc.t 15-18, which showed him at 21 percent.”

To throw a little water on the fire, Blake writes Daggett has to close a 5% larger gap than Ventura. But, the votes are not cast yet.

SOURCE:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/64251-daggett-getting-into-ventura-territory-in-polls

Challenger closing on Bloomberg…

Democratic Challenger Bill Thompson is closing on Incumbent independent Mayor Mike Bloomberg in a new poll from Survey USA. The poll shows New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson now only 12% back from the independent Incumbent. The good news for Bloomberg is that the poll still shows Bloomberg above the 50% mark, but only sitting at 53%.

Across the entire city Mayor Bloomberg is crushing Comptroller Thompson in voters over fifty years old (the ones who vote). But the polls are starting to break by region of New York City. Comptroller Thompson has taken a lead in Brooklyn and the Bronx, polling over 50% in both boroughs. But, in the other boroughs of Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island Mayor Bloomberg has a dominating 60+% lead. This race may be closer than expected, but Mayor Bloomberg still appears that he will come-up the winner even if every undecided breaks for Comptroller Thompson.

With this races apparently in hand, will Mayor Bloomberg endorse anybody in the New Jersey Gubernatorial race?

SOURCE:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b8c3dab8-ce92-431d-ba89-521f01ad55a9