Monday, November 30, 2009

Is the door opening to Third Party conservatives?

Two recent polls show there may be an opening for conservative Third Parties in the upcoming 2010 elections.

Democracy Corp said in a recent poll, “only 16 percent have a positive view of the current economy and only a third think the economy is ‘starting’ to improve.” The results of the poll shows that Independents “are particularly pessimistic” on economic issues. People vote with their pocketbooks and if voters are not will to accept the economy is doing well Democrats will fall.

But what about Republicans? When you look at numbers from an “excitement” poll conducted by Research 2000 for the DailyKos, the chances for conservative independent or Third Party candidates are high. The poll shows more than half of the country has negative views of Congressional Democrats and Republicans, and the parties in general.

The excitement gap is where the big news happens. The Research 2000/DailyKos poll asked, “In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?” 81% of Republican Voters said they are Definitely or Probably Voting in 2010, 65% of Independent voters also felt the same way, with only 56% Democratic voters feeling the same way.

If a conservative candidate can strike a credible message on the economy a third party candidate could get some traction. We saw how in just one month a Third Party candidate in upstate New York (Doug Hoffman) turned the race on its head. It took visits from the Vice President, and the endorsement from the Republican to beat the Third Party challenger.

If Democrats fail to garner excitement and support an independent/Third Party candidate could take some of their votes and then battle for votes from the right and make it into Congress.


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