Monday, November 2, 2009

After saying no, New Jersey Democrats fess-up to robo-call…

After saying no, New Jersey Democrats fess-up to robo-call. Matt Friedman writes on, “The Democratic State Committee now admits paying for a robocall to Somerset County voters that slams Republican Chris Christie and promotes independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett. A Democratic spokeswoman says the party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, was not aware of the robocalls when he denied that the state committee had anything to do with them yesterday afternoon.”

There has been some accusations over the campaign that Chris Daggett is some kind of Manchurian-Independent to suck votes away from Republican challenger Chris Christie planned by incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.

Daggett has continually denied the claims and in fact polls show Daggett is sucking away more support from Governor Corzine than the Republican challenger Christie. Daggett was quoted saying he had no part in the robo-calls, “Voters hate robocalls. This is just another instance of the dishonest ways Democrats and Republicans use to win campaigns and to fool voters.”

There is also a pro-Governor Corzie robocall from President Obama that may ring some phones in New Jersey.


Reading Polls: Daggett will finish in double digits…

Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett will finish in double digits on election night after looking at key polls on Looking at the polls that ended on November 1st we see a few trends.

In all polls, except for one, Chris Daggett was getting double-digit support. The poll that shows Daggett only in single digits had two percent of people voting for a Third Party candidate and still seven percent of people undecided. We think some of that Third Party vote ay have been intended for Daggett and Daggett should likely pick-up some of that undecided vote.

So who will win the whole thing? The average puts the race at even. When looking at the most recent polls it seems polls with undecided numbers six percent or higher goes towards the Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine. The polls with lower numbers of undecideds lean towards Republican challenger Chris Christie. What does this mean? We’ll see soon.


Club for Growth sends more than $1,000,000 to help Third Party candidate…

Club for Growth sends more than $1,000,000 to help Third Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the New York 23rd Congressional special election. Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party ticket. The Club for Growth and Club for Growth PAC spent more the $550,000 on television ads plus more than $80,000 on mail, phone, Other advertisements promotion Hoffman or questioning his opponents.

Their bundlers also got more the 2,400 donations to the Hoffman campaign for more than $350,000.

The Club for Growth says the grand total was $1,008,388.


RNC running ads in race with no candidate…

The Republican National Committee is running radio ads in New York’s 23rd Congressional District special election. The radio ad a number of times encouraged people to “"vote conservative", did we mention there is still a Conservative Party candidate in the race?

The Republican quit the race and decided to back the Democrat in the race. So, the Republicans have decided to back Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

The Thirds wonders if this backing by the Republican National Committee could actually hurt candidate Hoffman. Hoffman backers across the nation decided to support him as a third party alternative.

Even in recent polling independents have bolted to the Democrats versus the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman who previously was leading in independents. It is important to note there are a number of undecided independents, those independents could break for Hoffman.


The story of election 2009 in one tweet…

The story of election 2009 could possibly be made clear in one tweet. Whoever is running AmhestGOP tweeted, “This is one Republican that isn't sending one more dime to the RNC, NRSC, or NRCC. I'll send it to Club for Growth instead.

That sentiment could be the largest effect of election-day 2009. The Republican hand-picked liberal-leaning candidate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava was damaged goods from the start and end-up quitting mid-race and supporting her former Democratic opponent.

The Republican and conservative establishment almost immediately revolted against Assemblywoman Scozzafava. She was a terrible pick their mind. Now the, “RNC, NRSC, or NRCC” cannot be trusted.

The Thirds believes the Club for Growth will see a huge increase in donations thanks to the Republicans botching New York’s 23rd Congressional District special election. We also expect to see other conservative groups see an increase in funds, but the Club for Growth established itself as a major game changer and king maker. That is at least until November 2010, politics can be fickle.


Is Palin gearing-up for a Third Party?

Is former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin really gearing-up for a Third Party? CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby writes on, Sarah Palin is making some robo-calls in Virginia right before Tuesday’s election. The funny thing is that Palin did not mention any candidate.

According to the CNN report the recording says, “Virginia, hello, this is Sarah Palin calling to urge you to go to the polls Tuesday and vote for Sarah’s principles. The eyes of America will be on Virginia and make no mistake about it, every vote counts. So don’t take anything for granted, vote your values on Tuesday, and urge your friends and family to vote, too.” The recording does not mention Bob McDonnell the Republican gubernatorial candidate.

The report says, “the phone blitz was paid for by the Virginia Faith and Freedom Coalition, the state branch of a national conservative group founded by former Christian Coalition director Ralph Reed.” In fact team-McDonnell said they did not know about the phone blitz before it took place.

Is former Governor Palin trying to help a conservative, or is she building a base for a possible third party libertarian-style Presidential run in 2012? Hmm… we only have about two more years to wait and find-out.


Independents leaving Third Party candidate for Democrat?

Are Independents really leaving the Third Party candidate in New York’s 23rd Congressional District for the Democrat? A new Sienna College poll shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman leading Democrat Bill Owens 41-36%. The Republican who quit the race and endorsed the Democrat, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, still picked-up 6%. That leaves 17% in the undecided column, before Assemblywoman Scozzafava dropped-out there was only 9% undecided.

The most interesting portion of this poll shows that Doug Hoffman who was winning with independents prior to the Scozzafava drop-out at 40-35-15, is now in second place among independents at 43-37-2.

Is it possible that independents are going to feel their independence Scozzafava-style and bolt for the current part in power?

But, in predicting the election-day winner perhaps the largest sign is the favorable/unfavorable ratings. Doug Hoffman’s favorable ratings continue their upward trend, he is at 47% favorable compared to 33% unfavorable. That’s higher in favorable and lower in unfavorable since the last poll. Bill Owens has gone in the opposite direction. His favorable slipped to 37% and unfavorable ticked-up to 38%.

No matter what happens, it has been an interesting month in the New York North Country.


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