Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Third Party candidate outspending Republican in a conservative district…

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is outspending Republican Dede Scozzafava in a conservative district for the Congressional Special election.

John Kraushaar writes on, “Dede Scozzafava, the GOP nominee in a key upcoming House special election, is running dangerously low on campaign cash, according to several GOP sources familiar with her spending and fundraising… the GOP sources acknowledged to POLITICO that she’s unable to compete financially with her two opponents.”

The article says Scozzafava supporters blame he low fundraising on Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele. The national Committee has not spent any money on the race, but has sent to staffers to help Scozzafava.

Democratic nominee Bill Owens is outspending Scozzafava, but the Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman is also outspending Scozzafava. The article says, “Scozzafava appears to have spent only $26,000 so far on television advertising… Owens has spent $303,000 on television ads, and Hoffman has spent $124,000 on TV advertising alone…


Florida Modern Whigs searching for candidate to run for empty seat...

Florida Modern Whig Party is searching for a candidate to run in the special election for an empty seat after Congressman Robert Wexler resigns. Congressman Wexler is leaving Congress to head a Washington think tank called the “Center for Middle East Peace & Economic Cooperation”.

The Florida Modern Whig party posted on their website and tweeted out a call for a candidate in the speical election that will happen in the district, Florida’s 19th Congressional District.

The Whigs want a candidate that will, “concur with the majority of the Party Platform and will support the twelve 912 candidate values to step forward and seek office as a Whig. The twelve 912 candidate values are: Honesty, Reverence, Hope, Thrift, Humility, Charity, Sincerity, Moderation, Hard Work, Courage, Personal Responsibility, and Gratitude… The Florida Whig Party is specifically looking for those who have never held public office to step forward… If you have seen the loss of credit, real estate values, jobs, and at times struggled with health, employment, and overall real-life issues, then you are more qualified than the vast majority of career politicians.”

The Whigs go on to say their backed candidate could get a, “website (a pre-designed template is ready for all Whig Candidates for any and all offices sought), automatic phone calls (up to 25,000 per day), printed material (business and palm cards), signs, virtual online town, community, and volunteer meetings, weekly Florida and Out-of-State Whig candidate conferences, campaign letters, voter registration lists, database design, master campaign plan development, a daily national and state issue briefing, and virtual campaign guidance from various Whigs throughout the State.”

So who would this Whig candidate face? It’s early. Beth Reinhard on wrote, “…state Sen. Jeremy Ring, D-Parkland.. was `’for sure'’ considering a run for the seat. Other potential Democratic contenders in the district… are state Sen. Ted Deutch of Delray Beach, West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel, Broward County Mayor Stacy Ritter and former Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber.”

The Miami Herald did not mention any Republicans that may try to run for the seat.


Six percent in Pennsylvania looking at third option in up-coming senate race…

Six percent in Pennsylvania are looking at third option in up-coming Senate race according to a new Rasmussen Report poll. reports, “Pennsylvania voters… 45% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. 40% would vote for Specter, while 6% prefer a third option. 9% are undecided.”

That was in the match-up between Republican turned Democrat Senator Arlen Spector and Republican challenger Pat Toomey. The poll also asked voters where they would cast their votes if Senator Spector lost in the primary to Democratic challenger Joe Sestak and faced Pat Toomey. That was a toss-up at 38%-37% but the article did not say how many people would lean to a third choice in that race.


Undecided voters in NJ Gov race do not like Corzine or Christie… Hello Daggett!

Undecided voters in the New Jersey Gubernatorial race do not like Corzine or Christie… Hello Daggett! Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling broke down some of the numbers from their recent poll. Eight percent of people said they are still undecided. So, who are the undecided voters?

Jensen found undecided voters are more Democrat than Republican, more voted for President Barack Obama than not, they even voted for Governor Corzine 58-25 in the last election. Jenson writes, “Usually you'd look at those numbers and say they're stubborn base voters who will eventually come home, advantage Corzine. The thing is they don't like him- just 17% have a favorable opinion of him. But they don't like Chris Christie either- just 20% view him positively.

Let just pretend: The undecided that like Governor Corzine vote for him. The undecided that like Christie vote for him. The rest of the undecided vote for Daggett. If that would happen Daggett would pick-up 4.8% of the vote and put him close to 20% of the overall vote.


Terrified! The Republicans are terrified of Daggett…

Terrified! The Republicans are terrified of Independent Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett. Republican Governors Association now has a fifteen second television commercial targeting Daggett.

The televsion ad announced said, “Corzine has been a failure.. even worse? Chris Daggett.” The commercial focuses on Daggett’s tax plan saying, “That’s no plan to fix the economy”

The ad ends with the venom of the announcer saying, “Chris Daggett, like Corzine… only worse.

If Daggett is not a factor, the Republicans would not be targeting this independent candidate.


Daggett could be the next Jesse Ventura…

Daggett could be the next Jesse Ventura is the take of the “First Read” from MSNBC. The column complied from NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro make a number of comparison between Independent New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett and Jesse Ventura’s successful run for Governor as a third party option.

The positives start with the line, “…don't sleep on Daggett. He's clearly a factor in the race now…” The column then drew comparisons between Daggett’s polling numbers and Vetura’s polling numbers the same time out from the election.

The column continues, “All the ingredients are there for Daggett in New Jersey: both major party nominees have upside down negatives; 40% believe Christie is NOT honest/trustworthy while 48% believe the same about Corzine. The national climate has a "pox on both houses" feel to it.”

The column did at that it is much more expensive for Daggett to buy televison ad time in the New York market compared to Minneapolis making it more difficult for Daggett. But that does not end the praise the column wraps-up, “But a break here (say a big endorsement from a well known/respected politician) or a break there (some sort of disastrous new scandal hitting either Corzine or Christie) and the floodgates could open… Stranger things have happened, isn't that right Governor Ventura? Governor Schwarzenegger? Just sayin...”


New poll shows Daggett in the mid-teen, still waiting for a post-Star-Ledger endorsement poll

Quinnipiac University released a new poll on the New Jersey Gubernatorial race. Independent challenger Chris Daggett came in with 14% of the vote. The poll showed Republican challenger Christopher Christie getting 41% of likely voters, with 40% choosing Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine.

The poll surveyed 1,264 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points making it likely one of the more accurate polls taken so far, but there is still on big factor that could skew this poll. The New Jersey Star-Ledger endorsed Chris Daggett on October 9th, the poll was taken from October 7 – 12.

So what can we learn from this poll? In every Quinnipiac poll Daggett’s votes have gone up, but is he running out of time? Daggett’s voter lean slightly to Chris Christie as a second choice, but only by a 40-33 margin.

The poll shows that 73% of likely voters have not heard enough about Daggett to form an opinion, that number is sure to shrink. Where will those voters go?

The biggest negative for Daggett is that voters believe he “Can't win/Spoiler”. If Daggett can get people to believe, his biggest negative goes away, and he become much more relevant and viable.

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