Monday, November 2, 2009

Independents leaving Third Party candidate for Democrat?

Are Independents really leaving the Third Party candidate in New York’s 23rd Congressional District for the Democrat? A new Sienna College poll shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman leading Democrat Bill Owens 41-36%. The Republican who quit the race and endorsed the Democrat, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, still picked-up 6%. That leaves 17% in the undecided column, before Assemblywoman Scozzafava dropped-out there was only 9% undecided.

The most interesting portion of this poll shows that Doug Hoffman who was winning with independents prior to the Scozzafava drop-out at 40-35-15, is now in second place among independents at 43-37-2.

Is it possible that independents are going to feel their independence Scozzafava-style and bolt for the current part in power?

But, in predicting the election-day winner perhaps the largest sign is the favorable/unfavorable ratings. Doug Hoffman’s favorable ratings continue their upward trend, he is at 47% favorable compared to 33% unfavorable. That’s higher in favorable and lower in unfavorable since the last poll. Bill Owens has gone in the opposite direction. His favorable slipped to 37% and unfavorable ticked-up to 38%.

No matter what happens, it has been an interesting month in the New York North Country.


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