The third party candidate can win in NY’s Congressional special election according to a new Siena College poll showing all three candidates for the New York Congressional special election are with-in 10% of each other. This thing is a toss-up.
The poll showed Democrat Bill Owens at 33%, Republican Assembly Member Dede Scozzafava has 29% and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has 23%.
Since the college’s last poll two weeks ago Hoffman has the most moment. He gained seven points. Owen picked-up five points support, while Scozzafava has lost six points.
It is very easy to see the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman coming-out with a win in this race. The poll shows that 14% of Republicans are still undecided, and 17% or independents are still undecided.
Here’s how Hoffman wins: Doug Hoffman was a scorned Republican bolting to the Conservative Party after Scozzafava’s nomination by party bosses. If Hoffman can convince at least half of the undecided Republicans that he is “more Republican” than liberal-Republican Scozzafava he will inch closer to the victory. Hoffman is already winning the independent vote, he will work hard to pick-up a significant portion of those 17% of independents that are undecided. If Hoffman can keep the 10% of Democrats that are already supporting him, plus picking-up some of the 18% still undecided Democrats, Hoffman could be the winner of this race.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg was quoted in the poll news release saying, “…given how tight the race is, this election may very well be won by a candidate with less than 40 percent of all the votes cast.”